A Tangled Web We Weave
On the Contrary...
Announcing a decision to postpone the submission of Kosovo proposal to the UN Security Council, Martti Ahtisaari (i.e. Adolfsen) cited Serbian elections as the reason for delay. Not only that, he did his best to sound very tough and unyielding (in the midst of yielding), stressing the proposal will be presented “to the parties without delay” after the elections. Ahtisaari is delaying, but he will do what he has to do without delay after the delay.
Contrary to Adolfsen’s declaration, Jonathan Eyal, Director of Studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London, says Serbia’s parliamentary elections have nothing to do with postponement of Ahtisaari’s Kosovo and Metohija status proposal. According to the British expert, elections in Serbia are only “an excuse to postpone something that had to be postponed anyway.”
In short, you can’t trust Adolfsen as far as you can throw him.
Deep Rift Between Western Europe and Russia
The main problem, says Eyal in the yesterday’s BBC interview, is the deep division between the Western Europe and Russia. Eyal reminds the West was hoping Russia will accept the change of the UN Kosovo mandate (the old switcheroo, where UN Resolution 1244 gets replaced with the new one, redefining Serbian province as no one’s province), which was supposed to be a preface leading to the final “solution” -- declaration of Kosovo and Metohija independence. This has not happened, since such hopes were unrealistic, said Jonathan Eyal.
Commenting the common public misconception that, in case of Kosovo province, the views of United States are conflicted with those of Russia, Eyal said “it all depends on what is considered the American view.”
According to the Western Europeans, or according to the British Foreign Office Director, John Sawers, Americans are “eager to leave Kosovo, since their troops are needed elsewhere and because they do not want to be engaged in the Southeastern Europe any longer.”
Germany Forcing the Issue Above All
However, Eyal says he “does not see Washington being in such a hurry” regarding Kosovo province final status. Washington, reminds Eyal, admits this is an extremely sensitive issue, especially because it enables Russia to claim an international precedent Moscow will be guided by in a number of former Soviet states.
So, warns Eyal, this is also a very dangerous question. Besides, Eyal says, the countries bordering Serbia are also not pressing the Kosovo province issue. British expert claims that this pressure is mainly coming from Britain, France and “especially Germany.”
Pristina Should be Mindful
Regarding Kosovo Albanian threats they will simply declare independence on their own, Mr. Eyal says Pristina needs to be reminded such motion would be illegal, since the official position of the United Nations on Serbian southern province has not changed. This position is defined by the Resolution 1244, which remains unaltered. Eyal stressed that no European state would be tempted to recognize unilaterally declared independence of the Serbian province.
It should be noted that Mr. Eyal’s assessment perfectly mirrors the latest statement from the U.S. State Department issued on November 10, a day after the Albanian Muslim war criminal Agim Ceku threatened with the unilateral declaration of independence. “The United States will ignore all unilateral moves by the Kosovo Albanian or Serbian officials,” a US official who wished to remain anonymous told Tanjug on Friday, and added:
Ceku may say things like that in order to encourage his supporters, but from the international community’s perspective, a decision of that kind would have no value whatsoever. Kosovo Albanian provisional government and assembly has no authority to reach such decision. Their assembly has already discussed this issue a number of times, they had prepared some declaration proposals, even adopted some of them, only to have them immediately overturned by the UNMIK officials.
Cartoon by Nikola Otas